Lies, damned lies, and statistics

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." The statement refers to the persuasive power of numbers, the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments, and the tendency of people to disparage statistics that do not support their positions. (Wikipedia)

The propaganda blitz surrounding the H1N1 virus seems to know no limits. The number of people the media "estimates" have been infected by the swine flu are 80 000 so far in Sweden, according to a recent headline, yet they do not bother to actually test all suspected cases to really make sure that it is in fact swine flu. The enormous fear mongering does nothing more than to create a pandemic of hypochondria. People call the health line for the slightest symptom and get their diagnosis over the phone. Then they become one more person to join the statistics. But in fact, only a small portion of suspected swine flu cases are the flu at all when one scrutinizes it.

In late July, the CDC abruptly advised states to stop testing for H1N1 flu, and stopped counting individual cases. The rationale given for the CDC guidance to forego testing and tracking individual cases was: why waste resources testing for H1N1 flu when the government has already confirmed there's an epidemic?

Some public health officials privately disagreed with the decision to stop testing and counting, telling CBS News that continued tracking of this new and possibly changing virus was important because H1N1 has a different epidemiology, affects younger people more than seasonal flu and has been shown to have a higher case fatality rate than other flu virus strains.

[...] The vast majority of cases were negative for H1N1 as well as seasonal flu, despite the fact that many states were specifically testing patients deemed to be most likely to have H1N1 flu, based on symptoms and risk factors, such as travel to Mexico. (CBC News)

As the statistics show, in California, 86% tested negative for the flu, 12% had the seasonal flu, and 2% had the H1N1 flu (out of 13,704 specimens). Tests in other states show similar results. One can therefore assume that the cases of swine flu are much fewer than reported in the US and all over the world. Just think about it, have we heard at all in the media about how many that have contracted the seasonal flu this year? We haven't because there seems to be none. All we hear about is the swine flu.

The last few days everything has intensified as the media starts reporting on children and pregnant women dying from the swine flu, and we become so swept away by these tragic events that we deem evidence and further research into these claims unwarranted.

One child's death in Canada has been held up by the media as a warning to parents who consider not vaccinating their children. One claims that he died from contracting the swine flu. However, some experts suspect that he could have died of something else.

Evan Frustaglio did test positive for H1N1, but Doctor Alain Poirier says the fact that his health went downhill so quickly has led some experts to wonder whether there was some other factor in his death. "It could be something else," Poirier says. "It has been described as, he had H1N1, he died suddenly. There's been no other test to verify what was the actual cause of death, like an autopsy."Poirier says some experts are speculating that meningitis or a bacterial infection may have actually killed him. We will never know, he says, because the teenager's grieving family has chosen not to allow a further investigation into his death. (CJAD Newstalk radio)

In Sweden, we today learnt about a 3 year old boy who passed away after contracting the swine flu. The parents went to the hospital on Wednesday (or Tuesday) as they were worried for their son who hadn't eaten or drunk in 5 days! He had a fever, diarrhea and was vomiting. He was sent home with fluid replacement. Obviously, he should have been admitted to the hospital right away! He started having trouble breathing on Friday and the parents brought him back to the hospital, but they didn't manage to save his life. (Aftonbladet) Obviously, the medical staff failed to do their job as he must have been severely dehydrated on Wednesday. Considering also that he had a muscle disease, he was clearly at great risk and in no shape to be sent home. What they should investigate is negligence on the hospital's part. That killed him, not swine flu.

Of course, as Sweden obligated herself to buy the vaccine in the event of a pandemic as early as 2006, she now needs to find ways to get people to accept the unnecessary and potentially dangerous vaccine not to make a complete fool of herself. The bird flu that killed half of those who contracted it is not at all comparable to this outbreak. But this was probably what Sweden had in mind when they signed the contract to have vaccines sent from Glaxo Smith Kline. But with the lowering of what counts as a pandemic by the WHO, the seasonal flu fits the description. Yet, we don't hear about any plans for mass vaccination against that.

There is a lot of politics and sensationalism involved in the reporting of swine flu cases, but very little attachment to reality. Evidence is twisted to make swine flu out to be worse than it is whereas the problems associated with the vaccine is blamed on pre-existing conditions in those receiving it.